Groundhog Day at the Iowa Caucus

Four years ago, I wrote this about Trump on the night of the Iowa debate before the Iowa Caucus.

 

The Night The Press Loses Debate To Trump

I did not think I would become a Trump fan, but it has happened. This does not mean that I will vote for him, but I appreciate him the way I would if John Stewart and Sacha Baron Cohen created a satire on the United States Presidential campaign. Trump's campaign is a mirror that keeps reflecting.

 

Somehow, I could see the rest of the 2016 Presidential campaign unfolding, although I thought the Republicans would eventually stand up to Trump. As of today, minutes before the 2020 Iowa Caucus starts, Republicans have not openly questioned his "perfect call."

Maybe I do know what is going to happen this time, despite all the candidates and confusion. I don't see how Biden loses. I imagine that he will chose Harris or Stacy Abrams as a running mate. Bernie is stronger than I thought, and he has done better despite the heart attack. I wanted to like Harris and Booker and Warren, but I don't think that they are strong enough to win the primary or the Presidency.

Four years ago, I ran through a list of all the candidates and how the election would unfold. I am not interested in predicting the outcome, and if I am not interested, I don't think the rest of the party cares either... and I think that is important. I think that most voters will eventually choose Biden, because it makes sense. Does it make sense? I don't know. Four years ago, I said that Bernie could never win. Perhaps he could win now. Maybe Bloomberg?

It's Biden. He escapes Iowa. He escapes New Hampshire. When he starts winning in South Carolina by a lot (and maybe Nevada), it could be over... although it will go on forever or until March, when the book and Super Tuesday happen.

btf

I did not think I would become a Trump fan, but it has happened. This does not mean that I will vote for him, but I appreciate him the way I would if John Stewart and Sacha Baron Cohen created a satire on the United States Presidential campaign. Trump's campaign is a mirror that keeps reflecting.

 

Somehow, I could see the rest of the 2016 Presidential campaign unfolding, although I thought the Republicans would eventually stand up to Trump. As of today, minutes before the 2020 Iowa Caucus starts, Republicans have not openly questioned his "perfect call."

Maybe I do know what is going to happen this time, despite all the candidates and confusion. I don't see how Biden loses. I imagine that he will chose Harris or Stacy Abrams as a running mate. Bernie is stronger than I thought, and he has done better despite the heart attack. I wanted to like Harris and Booker and Warren, but I don't think that they are strong enough to win the primary or the Presidency.

Four years ago, I ran through a list of all the candidates and how the election would unfold. I am not interested in predicting the outcome, and if I am not interested, I don't think the rest of the party cares either... and I think that is important. I think that most voters will eventually choose Biden, because it makes sense. Does it make sense? I don't know. Four years ago, I said that Bernie could never win. Perhaps he could win now. Maybe Bloomberg?

It's Biden. He escapes Iowa. He escapes New Hampshire. When he starts winning in South Carolina by a lot (and maybe Nevada), it could be over... although it will go on forever or until March, when the book and Super Tuesday happen.

btf